2023 US PGA Championship Favourites & Odds
Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler emerge as the market leaders for the US PGA Championship.
Rahm, the current world number one, has strong claims for victory as he is seeking back-to-back major wins after his recent triumph at the US Masters. Additionally, Rahm has shown good form with a 15th-place finish at The Heritage and a second-place finish at the Mexico Open. As Spain has yet to secure a victory in the Championship, Rahm will be motivated to make history.
Scottie Scheffler, ranked second in the world, is harder to assess as his performance at the Byron Nelson Championship is ongoing and could influence his play at Oak Hill. However, his number one ranking for Greens In Regulation on the PGA Tour highlights his accurate approach play. Scheffler has already won twice this year, at the Phoenix Open and the Players Championship, showcasing his fine form. The concern lies with his putting, which hasn’t been great in Texas. Whether he can hole enough putts at Oak Hill to claim his second major title remains to be seen.
Rory McIlroy, a two-time winner of the US PGA Championship, is also a notable player but currently makes little appeal based on his recent form. Having missed cuts at the Players Championship and the US Masters, along with a disappointing performance at the Wells Fargo Championship, McIlroy’s chances seem diminished. Although he may come into the tournament slightly under the radar, it has been nine years since his last major win.
Justin Thomas is undoubtedly a talented golfer, but his recent form and performance in major championships raise questions about his consistency and ability to win again. While his final round performance in the US PGA Championship last year was remarkable, coming from seven shots behind, his overall performance this season has been somewhat lacklustre.
With only one top-five finish in the current season, Thomas has struggled to find his form. His rankings in Strokes Gained Approach have not been impressive since the US Open, and he has not ranked better than 10th in Putting since his victory at the US PGA Championship 12 months ago.
Considering his ability and potential, it’s reasonable to expect better results from Thomas in major championships. However, his record of seven top 10s in 29 major championship starts may be seen as underachieving given his undeniable talent. It suggests that he has not consistently capitalised on his abilities and performed to the best of his potential in major tournaments.
While Thomas has the skills and experience to contend, his recent form and performance indicators indicate that he will need to find better consistency and regain his top form to have a strong chance of winning another major championship.
Tony Finau appears to be a strong contender for the US PGA Championship based on the provided analysis. Despite his major drought, Finau has garnered attention from punters and has a better chance to break through in this tournament. His recent record of winning four out of his last 19 strokeplay events showcases his winning capabilities.
Digging deeper, Finau’s case for a major victory becomes even more compelling. His win at the Rocket Mortgage on a Donald Ross layout in Detroit, shooting 26 under par and winning by a significant margin of five shots, demonstrates his ability to dominate on similar course setups. In the weeks leading up to that win, he had secured victories at the 3M Open by three shots and in Houston by four shots. Most recently, he won in Mexico by three strokes. The victory at Vidanta, where he held off Jon Rahm, who went on to win the Masters two weeks later, illustrates Finau’s progress and ability to contend with the world’s best golfers.
Finau’s combination of length and precision from the tee, along with his ranking inside the top 20 in scrambling from the bunker, makes him well-suited for the challenges of Oak Hill. Additionally, his first-place ranking on the tour in Strokes Gained: Approach indicates his proficiency in approach shots. With his recent stellar performances and the assets he brings to this tournament, Finau appears primed to contend and potentially secure his first major victory.
Overall, Tony Finau’s recent success, particularly his win at Vidanta and his ability to compete with top-ranked players, positions him as a strong candidate for the US PGA Championship.
Sam Burns, despite his recent success at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play, has struggled to make a significant impact in major championships. In the Masters, he showed promise by sitting in sixth place after the first two rounds, but his performance deteriorated in the final two rounds, leading to a T29th finish. His best major result to date is a T20th in this tournament last year.
It remains somewhat of a mystery why Burns has been unable to establish himself in majors, especially when compared to the success of players like Will Zalatoris and Cameron Young. One possible explanation could be that Burns excels with his putter, while Zalatoris and Young demonstrate their strengths off the tee with their driving abilities.
Given his inconsistent performances in majors, it may be prudent to approach Burns with caution until he shows more consistent results on the big stage however if he can hold his long game together his advantage in putting could prove critical this weekend.
US PGA Championship Tips & Selections
Of the market principal Scottie Scheffler is just the obvious one hits many key trends and arrives bang in form. The PGA is always a tournament which can lend itself to a new major winner and at bigger odds Tony Finau and Sam Burns look to offer some value