Premier League Top Four Race & Odds

The race for the top 4 is heating up after the weekend’s results. Who will be playing Champions League football next season?

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Who qualifies for the Champions League this season?

The race for the top four is heating up and the weekend’s results are damning for certain clubs whilst euphoric for others.

Newcastle placed one foot firmly in the top 4 spaces with their 6-1 thumping over Tottenham, which saw the Magpies stretch to 6 points clear of the London club in a lofty 3rd place. Eddie Howe’s men have been tremendous this season and that form continues with 4 wins in their last 5, and bookmakers pricing them at 1/6 to be in the Champions League next term.

3 domestic wins on the spin for Manchester united see them level on points with Newcastle in 4th position, despite not playing this weekend due to FA Cup commitments. With 2 games in hand over Spurs, Man Utd travel to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in their next match.

Brighton and Liverpool seem to be the clubs who can push Newcastle and Manchester United to the wire. Brighton currently sit in 8th place, but have 3 games in hand on some teams – if won this could catapult them to 5th position on 58 points.

Liverpool also seem to be hitting form just at the right time. A draw against title challenging Arsenal and 2 consecutive wins against Nottingham Forest and Leeds gives the Reds a fighting chance to be in next years Champions League.

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Premier League Top Four Odds 2022/23

Club      Odds    Bookmaker (click to bet)
Manchester United
1/8
William Hill
Newcastle United
1/6
Unibet
Brighton
5/1
Quinnbet
Liverpool
13/2
Unibet
Tottenham
16/1
Unibet

 

All odds correct as 13:00 BST, 24 April.

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Top Four Favourites

Manchester United

Erik Ten Hag’s men bowed out of the Europa League in disappointing fashion in Seville. Ultimately, Manchester United will now be fully focussed on the top 4 race and the bookies have them heavy favourites to achieve that.

After securing a place in the FA Cup final against rivals Manchester City, Man Utd will be hoping to complete a domestic double and stop their noisy neighbours from attempting to replicate the Red Devils’ 1999 treble.

Buoyed by the return of midfielder, Casemiro in their last Premier League outing (0-2 away win at Nottingham Forest), Ten Hag’s squad was bare to the bones with somewhat of a makeshift back four at the City Ground.

Lisandro Martinez, Raphael Varane, Luke Shaw and even Tyrell Malacia among the defensive casualties but that didn’t stop the reds completing a rather routine 2-0 win.

The bookies believe Manchester United have all but confirmed a top 4 spot, they have a 6 point advantage over 5th placed Spurs with 2 game in hand.

Newcastle United

After a surprise 3-0 loss to Aston Villa, Newcastle returned to winning ways against fellow top four hopefuls Tottenham Hotspur in extreme fashion. The Magpies blew Tottenham away with 5 goals in the opening 21 minutes of the game.

Best priced at 1/6 on, bookmakers seem to think the Magpies have the top four place on lock, and it is hard to disagree. 6 wins in their last 7 means the Toon Army only need a handful of victories to ensure Eddie Howe’s men will being in Europe’s premier competition next season.

Alexander Isak is also proving to be a clever buy. 7 goals in his last 8 Premier League appearances puts the 23 year-old Swede on 10 goals for the season. Not a bad return for a debut season in the Premier League that has been hindered by injuries.

With Newcastle’s new owners and their buying power; qualifying for the Champions League is crucial to attract the biggest names and ensuring this season is not a one-off.

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Which teams can qualify for the Champions League?

Liverpool

Liverpool’s push for the top four may have come too late in the campaign to reap any rewards, but they will not give up.

After adding to Leeds’ woes with a 6-1 win at Elland Road, Jurgen Klopp then steered his squad to a 3-2 win at home to Nottingham Forest with Diogo Jota recording an impressive 4 goals and 1 assist respectively.

There is a lofty 9 points gap between Liverpool and rivals Manchester United who occupy the 4th spot. Liverpool are ultimately relying on other teams’ results. All Klopp’s men can do is keep pushing and recording victories and hope Newcastle or Man United slip up.

The Europa League seems the more likely destination for the Reds. This could be damning in terms of potential transfer business in the summer. Reports suggest that Jude Bellingham has no intention of joining Klopp at Anfield, and this raises concerns about whether other players would feel similarly reluctant to sign with Liverpool if they fail to secure Champions League football next season.

Brighton

Roberto De Zerbi’s men are having one blinding season. Losing Leandro Trossard and Graham Potter mid-campaign has had seemingly little to no effect whatsoever. A true credit to the setup the Seagulls have.

Albion are similarly priced to Liverpool (5/1) to reach the top four by the end of the season. Whilst not impossible, it will be a tough ask. 10 points adrift from Manchester United in 4th but the Seagulls have only played 29 matches.

The conveyer belt of players found by the recruitment team at Brighton is second to none. They have lost Bissouma, Cucurella and Trossard recently but the development of players like Mitoma, Ferguson and Caicedo is testament to Albion’s processes.

FA Cup semi-final heartbreak at the hands of penalty shootout winners, Manchester United saw De Zerbi’s team falter at the penultimate hurdle. A number of difficult games are facing Brighton that will damped the top four hopes. They are still to play title contenders Arsenal and Manchester City as well as clashes with top four rivals Manchester United and Newcastle United.

Tottenham Hotspur

After embarrassment at the hands of Newcastle on Sunday, Spurs can all but kiss goodbye to their top four chances.

According to reports [Daily Mail], interim manager, Christian Stellini is already under pressure with his position ‘in serious doubt’. With Ryan Mason touted to fill in until the end of the season.

Kane and company face some difficult upcoming fixtures with a visit from Manchester United midweek and then Liverpool away on 30 April.

Priced at anywhere from 10-16/1 Spurs are the rank outsiders in the eyes of the bookies. Disappointing results against relegation-threatened Southampton and Everton and then two embarrassing losses versus Bournemouth and Newcastle have meant Stellini’s squad may even struggle to qualify for the Europa League, particularly with Liverpool and Brighton breathing down their necks.

 

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List of remaining fixtures for top 4 Premier League contenders

Manchester United: Tottenham, Aston Villa, Brighton, West Ham, Wolves, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Fulham.

Newcastle United: Everton, Southampton, Arsenal, Leeds, Brighton, Leicester, Chelsea.

Brighton: Nottingham Forest, Wolves, Man Utd, Everton, Arsenal, Newcastle, Southampton, Man City, Aston Villa.

Liverpool: West Ham, Tottenham, Fulham, Brentford, Leicester, Aston Villa, Southampton.

Tottenham: Man Utd, Liverpool, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Brentford, Leeds.

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All odds correct as of 13:00 BST, 24 April.


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